Democracy International issued the following press release today:

Kabul, Afghanistan – At 5PM today, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) released the long anticipated decision resulting from the audit of  polling stations that met the criteria of its September 8, 2009, audit and recount order.

Democracy International has analysed the results from data previously released and believes  the ECC audit decisions should result in a runoff election, according to Afghanistan’s Electoral Law. Our calculations suggest the percentage rejection of the ballots cast in each of the audit categories will reduce  President Hamid Karzai’s level of support to approximately 48.29% of the overall vote. This reduces his vote share below the 50% threshold necessary for a first-round victory, and should necessitate a runoff election between Hamid Karzai, and the second-place candidate, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah.  The IEC has a responsibility to certify the results based on the ECC’s decisions.

In addition, the ECC has decided to invalidate 210 polling stations based on Priority A complaints, 147 of which are included in the IEC’s published preliminary result.

Based on DI’s analysis of the preliminary results and understanding of the ECC’s audit process, we believe the combined impact of these decisions is:

Candidate Valid Vote in Preliminary Uncertified Result Invalidated Vote from ECC Audit Findings Priority A Invalidated Vote Valid Vote After the ECC Published Decisions Final Post-Audit and Post-Complaint Percent based on Published Decisions
Hamid Karzai

3,093,256

954,526

41,276

2,097,454

48.29%
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah

1,571,581

191,554

10,098

1,369,929

31.54%
Others

997,921

115,322

6,540

876,059

20.17%
Total

5,662,758

1,261,403

57,914

4,343,441

100.00%

Note: Some percentages may not add precisely to 100.00% because of rounding to two decimal places.

The ECC has now given a decision on the audit process, the results of which appear to require a run-off election to be held. The IEC should now review the operational requirements to hold that election and set a date for the earliest possible polling.