With the IEC tallying process nearly complete, the focus now shifts to the ECC ordered audit of suspicious polling stations.

Yesterday, the Independent Election Commission (IEC) released preliminary results from 91.6 percent of polling stations with 54.1 percent of valid votes cast in favor of President Hamid Karzai for a total of 2,959,093 votes. The preliminary results show Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, President Karzai’s main competitor, receiving 28.3 percent of valid votes for a total of 1,546,490 votes. While the results appear to show President Karzai with a sizable lead which would allow him to avoid a second round runoff election, the reality is far more complicated.

Prior to the IEC’s release of preliminary results, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) issued an order to conduct an audit and recount of ballots cast at polling stations which meet one of two criteria. According the ECC order, if the total number of votes cast at a polling station is greater than or equal to 600 or one presidential candidate received 95 percent or more of the total valid votes cast than that polling station should be audited and recounted.

It’s important to understand that the audit itself is only one step in the ECC investigative procedure and that each polling station will be addressed on the basis of whether or not clear and convincing evidence of fraud exists. According to the IEC’s rules governing results audits, investigation teams may inspect results and reconciliation forms, ballot paper packing, polling station journals, and the actual count of ballots. If investigative teams uncover clear and convincing evidence of fraud at a given polling station, the ECC will be forced to decide on an appropriate corrective course of action.

It is likely that the IEC will complete the process of releasing preliminary results on Saturday, September 12. At that point, it will be possible to determine the total number of polling stations which meet the ECC’s audit criteria and in effect, the total number of votes at stake. Until then, however, only speculation is possible. Based on polling station level data released by the IEC on September 2, it is likely that at least 2,000 polling stations will be audited which could amount to more than 450,000 votes. It is conceivable that the results of the ECC ordered audit could reduce President Karzai’s margin of victory below the critical 50 percent threshold to avoid a second round runoff.

Also of concern is the diminishing number of polling stations being reported by the IEC. Since August 31, the IEC has held three press conferences to release preliminary results. Over that period, the total number of polling stations has decreased by 2,443. It is unclear what this number represents. While it may simply represent the IEC’s discovery of polling stations that did not in fact open on Election Day, it could also include polling stations where the IEC has annulled results or polling stations which the IEC is conducting investigations of, in which case the number of total polling stations may actually increase at the end of the investigative process. An explanation from the IEC which addresses this ambiguity would be welcome.

Complying with the ECC ordered recount could take weeks and significant complications could emerge throughout the process.  At this stage, the IEC has not released details regarding an audit and recount operation and until they do so it will not be possible to estimate how much longer Afghans will have to wait for certified election results. It is clear, however, that the IEC is unlikely to meet the initial projected date of September 17 for the release of official certified election results.