Democracy International issued the following press release today.

Kabul, Afghanistan – The planned recount and audit of results from Afghanistan’s August 20 Presidential Election must proceed in a transparent and timely manner if the election is to have any legitimacy in the eyes of the Afghan people or the international community, Democracy International said on Thursday. “Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission and Electoral Complaints Commission were established to protect the integrity of the electoral process,” said DI Principal Glenn Cowan. “Their work is now at its most crucial stage.”

Unless satisfactorily addressed, credible reports of ballot stuffing and other irregularities being raised by domestic and international observers, the media, the diplomatic community and others will undermine the electoral process. The preliminary results released yesterday by the Independent Election Commission (IEC) include a large number of potentially fraudulent votes that need to be investigated further before final results are certified. The recount and audit process mandated by the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) is essential to the credibility of the election and should receive the full support of the international community and Afghan political leaders.

“The decision by the ECC to require this audit presents an opportunity to legitimize the electoral process by purging fraudulent results from the tally”, said Cowan. “The results of this effort will determine the legitimacy of this election and it should be supported wholeheartedly by the international community.”

The Afghan government and all political actors should allow the IEC and ECC to conduct the audit without interference and produce a final certified result that reflects the legitimate votes actually cast by the Afghan people as accurately as possible.

Next Steps for the IEC and ECC

The IEC and the ECC should quickly establish and make public detailed procedures and a timeline for how the audit will be conducted, including clear standards by which to determine the validity of a polling station’s results. The process should be open to all interested parties, including candidate agents, the media, and domestic and international observers, and the results of the audit should be immediately and publicly disseminated.

The IEC should take this opportunity to release more detailed information on the preliminary results, including explanations for any polling station results it has invalidated or quarantined. There have been numerous instances of unexplained changes in provincial results after the IEC has released them, which has further contributed to the current perception of widespread fraud.

The IEC should also release results for the Provincial Council elections. These results should already be tallied and will provide a useful cross-check against which to compare the Presidential results. They are important in their own right and should not be left in limbo during the audit process.

Finally, those found to have committed fraud should be prosecuted as provided by law. A culture of electoral fraud should not be tolerated by the Afghan government or the Afghan people.

The ECC and the IEC were created to ensure the legitimacy of Afghanistan’s elections. These organizations must work together to address the issues before them to help restore the credibility of their country’s electoral process.

Today, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) issued a number of decisions concerning investigations conducted on polling stations in Ghazni, Paktika, and Kandahar provinces. In total, the ECC invalidated the results for 86 polling stations, 78 for the Presidential poll and 8 for the Provincial Council poll.

Of the polling stations affected by today’s ECC decisions, only two have been tallied and included in the IEC’s preliminary results. 447 ballots were cast in the two polling stations in Ghazni province, all in favor of President Karzai. As a result, President Karzai’s vote total will decrease by at least 447 votes.

In Kandahar, the ECC ruled that the results from 51 polling stations should be invalidated and that a full recount and audit should be conducted in Shorabak, Spin Boldak, and Khakrez districts for both the Presidential and Provincial Council elections.

In one case in Ghazni province, the ECC was informed that counting took place at the provincial warehouse in Ghazni instead of at the polling station. This prompted the ECC to initiate an investigation in which they randomly selected nine ballot boxes from Zanakhan district. Upon examination of the random sample, the ECC found clear and convincing evidence of fraud. At one randomly selected polling station, 347 of 350 ballots were cast in favor of President Karzai with repetitive markings and with a list of voters which included fraudulent registration numbers.

In all three provinces, the ECC cited a number of criteria for invalidating votes from particular polling stations, such as identical markings or a clear pattern in the markings on ballots, uncreased ballots – indicating that the ballots had not been inserted through the top slot of the ballot box, ballots bundled and cast solely for one candidate, and missing reconciliation materials such as unused ballots and stubs from used ballots. The ECC also invalidated results from polling stations which reported zero invalid votes.

With the IEC tallying process nearly complete, the focus now shifts to the ECC ordered audit of suspicious polling stations.

Yesterday, the Independent Election Commission (IEC) released preliminary results from 91.6 percent of polling stations with 54.1 percent of valid votes cast in favor of President Hamid Karzai for a total of 2,959,093 votes. The preliminary results show Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, President Karzai’s main competitor, receiving 28.3 percent of valid votes for a total of 1,546,490 votes. While the results appear to show President Karzai with a sizable lead which would allow him to avoid a second round runoff election, the reality is far more complicated.

Prior to the IEC’s release of preliminary results, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) issued an order to conduct an audit and recount of ballots cast at polling stations which meet one of two criteria. According the ECC order, if the total number of votes cast at a polling station is greater than or equal to 600 or one presidential candidate received 95 percent or more of the total valid votes cast than that polling station should be audited and recounted.

It’s important to understand that the audit itself is only one step in the ECC investigative procedure and that each polling station will be addressed on the basis of whether or not clear and convincing evidence of fraud exists. According to the IEC’s rules governing results audits, investigation teams may inspect results and reconciliation forms, ballot paper packing, polling station journals, and the actual count of ballots. If investigative teams uncover clear and convincing evidence of fraud at a given polling station, the ECC will be forced to decide on an appropriate corrective course of action.

It is likely that the IEC will complete the process of releasing preliminary results on Saturday, September 12. At that point, it will be possible to determine the total number of polling stations which meet the ECC’s audit criteria and in effect, the total number of votes at stake. Until then, however, only speculation is possible. Based on polling station level data released by the IEC on September 2, it is likely that at least 2,000 polling stations will be audited which could amount to more than 450,000 votes. It is conceivable that the results of the ECC ordered audit could reduce President Karzai’s margin of victory below the critical 50 percent threshold to avoid a second round runoff.

Also of concern is the diminishing number of polling stations being reported by the IEC. Since August 31, the IEC has held three press conferences to release preliminary results. Over that period, the total number of polling stations has decreased by 2,443. It is unclear what this number represents. While it may simply represent the IEC’s discovery of polling stations that did not in fact open on Election Day, it could also include polling stations where the IEC has annulled results or polling stations which the IEC is conducting investigations of, in which case the number of total polling stations may actually increase at the end of the investigative process. An explanation from the IEC which addresses this ambiguity would be welcome.

Complying with the ECC ordered recount could take weeks and significant complications could emerge throughout the process.  At this stage, the IEC has not released details regarding an audit and recount operation and until they do so it will not be possible to estimate how much longer Afghans will have to wait for certified election results. It is clear, however, that the IEC is unlikely to meet the initial projected date of September 17 for the release of official certified election results.

The ambiguity surrounding the outcome of Afghanistan’s August 20 presidential poll once again highlights the major impediments to a robust and transparent Afghan electoral framework.

More than two weeks after Afghanistan’s August 20 presidential and provincial council elections the results remain unclear. At this stage, with the results of more than 75 percent of polling stations reported, the incumbent, President Hamid Karzai, is well ahead of his competitors but still short of the 50 percent mark required to avoid a second round runoff. The preliminary results are mired in controversy fueled by broad allegations of fraud by both local power brokers and the international media.

The ambiguity in the results stems from more than allegations of fraud, however. While the Independent Election Commission (IEC) has reported the results from more than 75 percent of polling stations, the actual percentage of votes this represents is clouded by the imperfections of the Afghan electoral framework. The IEC has provided polling station level results by which district-level analysis can be conducted.  Without a reliable voter list, however, it is impossible to calculate the actual percentage of voters who have cast their ballots. The actual number of polling stations open on Election Day is also an ambiguous figure, as the IEC has reported different provincial totals over the course of the tallying process. These complications, compounded with the lack of accurate census data, makes predicting the outcome with any level of confidence impossible.

It is to the credit of the IEC that it has provided rolling results of the presidential poll on its website and have gone so far as to provide polling station-level data (albeit not in a format easily processed for data analysis). The IEC has not provided similar data for the number of invalid and invalidated votes per polling station, however. This data would provide analysts the means by which to examine correlations between polling stations that reported an average number of voters significantly higher than the provincial or district average and stations where the percentage of invalid or invalidated votes falls outside a reasonable deviation from the district average.

Many analysts have argued that the absence of an accurate voter list and the imperfections in the voter registration process contributed to creating an environment conducive to fraud. Just as the final election results have yet to be announced, however, most allegations of fraud have yet to be corroborated. The international media have reported testimony from tribal elders claiming they were forced to cast ballots for one candidate or another, allegations that have been refuted by the accused. The Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) is reviewing more than 600 Category A complaints, which could affect the final vote tally, but to this point has avoided making public statements regarding specific cases or the broader legitimacy of the process.

It is unclear what effect the ECC’s investigative procedures will have on the final outcome. What is clear is that in order for final results to be certified, the ECC must complete its adjudication process. The protracted period of vote tabulation not only calls into question the strength of the Afghan electoral framework but also highlights the need for more sophisticated international observation of future Afghan elections. With more than 75 percent of polling station-level results reported, and the outcome still unclear, never has the need for independent vote count verification, such as a parallel vote tabulation, been more apparent.

Yesterday Jed Ober, one of DI’s core staff members in Kabul, attended an ECC Press Conference, and provided the following update on the complaints process:

At 3 PM Kabul time the ECC held a press conference at which the Chairman, Grant Kippen, provided an overview of the complaints process to this point and took questions. Here is a summary of the pertinent information:

• 2,187 complaints were filed during polling and counting of which 2,089 have been assessed and categorized.

• 652 of these complaints are considered ‘category A’ complaints which if determined valid could have a material effect on the result.

• Of the category A complaints, 87% concern polling irregularities(ballot stuffing, intimidation, ink issues, accusations against PC/PS staff) and 6% concern counting irregularities.

• Baghlan ranks highest with 71 category A complaints. Kabul (55) and Kandahar (39) are next highest.

• The ECC  has sent investigation teams to Ghazni, Paktika and Kandahar (2) provinces who are investigating category A complaints. Provincial ECC officials have also been tasked with investigating complaints.

• The number of complaints does not necessarily reflect the number of decisions the ECC will make.

• Most of the complaints filed relate to the presidential election and are not classified as against a particular candidate but against a particular PS or PC.

• It is also difficult to gauge the number of votes each complaint could effect as it’s possible complaints could overlap PSs and PCs and the ECC is not tracking complaints at this level.

• At this point, only complaints regarding the tally process are being accepted. All complaints must be adjudicated prior to certification of the results and it was made clear that the ECC will conduct thorough investigations, although Kippen was confident they have the staff to conduct timely investigations.