DI recently released ‘Consensus Recommendations for Electoral Reform in Afghanistan’. This publication lists 34 recommendations for electoral reform in Afghanistan which are based on a comprehensive review and analysis of recommendations presented by a wide range of stakeholders to Afghanistan’s election process. These recommendations have been drawn from 437 unique recommendations presented by Afghan civil society organizations, international observer missions, assistance organizations, independent election experts, and others.

DI believes these recommendations represent the major points of consensus for electoral reform in Afghanistan. It is important to stress, that these recommendations are not the independent positions of Democracy International. They are the result of a review of hundreds of documents and are inclusive of the opinions of a wide range of stakeholders. We hope they can help form the foundation for an all inclusive effort both to improve Afghanistan’s election system in the long run, but also to strengthen specific aspects in preparation for upcoming parliamentary elections.

DI’s Consensus Recommendations for Electoral Reform in Afghanistan can be downloaded here in three languages:

Download Dari Version

Download English version

Download Pashtu Version

Download all 437 recommendations for electoral reform in Afghanistan, here.

Democracy International issued the following press release today:

Kabul, Afghanistan – At 5PM today, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) released the long anticipated decision resulting from the audit of  polling stations that met the criteria of its September 8, 2009, audit and recount order.

Democracy International has analysed the results from data previously released and believes  the ECC audit decisions should result in a runoff election, according to Afghanistan’s Electoral Law. Our calculations suggest the percentage rejection of the ballots cast in each of the audit categories will reduce  President Hamid Karzai’s level of support to approximately 48.29% of the overall vote. This reduces his vote share below the 50% threshold necessary for a first-round victory, and should necessitate a runoff election between Hamid Karzai, and the second-place candidate, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah.  The IEC has a responsibility to certify the results based on the ECC’s decisions.

In addition, the ECC has decided to invalidate 210 polling stations based on Priority A complaints, 147 of which are included in the IEC’s published preliminary result.

Based on DI’s analysis of the preliminary results and understanding of the ECC’s audit process, we believe the combined impact of these decisions is:

Note: Some percentages may not add precisely to 100.00% because of rounding to two decimal places.

The ECC has now given a decision on the audit process, the results of which appear to require a run-off election to be held. The IEC should now review the operational requirements to hold that election and set a date for the earliest possible polling.

As an audit of a sample of suspicious polling stations continues, the prospect of a runoff election is still unclear

The ECC and IEC are currently conducting an audit of a sample of the ballot boxes which meet the criteria defined in the September 8 ECC audit order. 3,498 polling stations meet the audit criteria, but they have decided only to audit a sample of these – roughly ten percent. They’ve separated the ballot boxes into six categories and are auditing a total of 358 ballot boxes.

Six audit teams are responsible for conducting the entire audit. Each team is composed of three members – an IEC team leader, an IEC team member, and a team member from UNDP elect. All audits are conducted at an audit center in Kabul which is supervised jointly by a team which consists of IEC, ECC, and UNDP-Elect staff.  Candidate agents and observers do have access to the audit center, although the results of individual audits are not being released, as they are considered part of an ongoing investigation.

To conduct an audit, the audit team uses a checklist which covers four main stages: a visual inspection of the ballot box, opening of the ballot box to discover if tampering occurred, whether the box contains the necessary materials, and whether or not the actual contents display signs of fraud. Such physical indicators of fraud include unfolded ballots, identical markings or significant patterns of markings, or discrepancies between the total ballots bundled and the total votes recorded on the results form.

If clear and convincing evidence of fraud is found for a particular polling station, all the results from that station will be invalidated. The ECC will then calculate a percentage of fraud for each of the six categories based on the results of the sample audit. These percentages will then be multiplied by the remaining votes not included in the 358 ballot box sample for each candidate in the respective categories. So, for example, if the ECC invalidates 55% of ballots from category A1 of the sample, it will then invalidate 55% of the ballots in that category for each candidate from the polling stations that were not sampled.

There are a number of methodological problems with this approach, but it was chosen to allow the IEC and ECC to conduct the audit relatively quickly. Once the audit process is complete and the new vote totals have been calculated, a final certified result will be announced. It’s important to understand that other ECC investigations are still ongoing and it’s unclear what effect these investigations will have on the outcome.

At this stage, it is still unclear whether a runoff election will be necessary. If the audit process produces a final certified result in which President Karzai has won less than fifty percent of the ballots being counted, a runoff should occur. The audit process is likely to be completed within the next few days and a final certified result could be announced as early as 15 October.

Today, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) issued a number of decisions concerning investigations conducted on polling stations in Ghazni, Paktika, and Kandahar provinces. In total, the ECC invalidated the results for 86 polling stations, 78 for the Presidential poll and 8 for the Provincial Council poll.

Of the polling stations affected by today’s ECC decisions, only two have been tallied and included in the IEC’s preliminary results. 447 ballots were cast in the two polling stations in Ghazni province, all in favor of President Karzai. As a result, President Karzai’s vote total will decrease by at least 447 votes.

In Kandahar, the ECC ruled that the results from 51 polling stations should be invalidated and that a full recount and audit should be conducted in Shorabak, Spin Boldak, and Khakrez districts for both the Presidential and Provincial Council elections.

In one case in Ghazni province, the ECC was informed that counting took place at the provincial warehouse in Ghazni instead of at the polling station. This prompted the ECC to initiate an investigation in which they randomly selected nine ballot boxes from Zanakhan district. Upon examination of the random sample, the ECC found clear and convincing evidence of fraud. At one randomly selected polling station, 347 of 350 ballots were cast in favor of President Karzai with repetitive markings and with a list of voters which included fraudulent registration numbers.

In all three provinces, the ECC cited a number of criteria for invalidating votes from particular polling stations, such as identical markings or a clear pattern in the markings on ballots, uncreased ballots – indicating that the ballots had not been inserted through the top slot of the ballot box, ballots bundled and cast solely for one candidate, and missing reconciliation materials such as unused ballots and stubs from used ballots. The ECC also invalidated results from polling stations which reported zero invalid votes.

With the IEC tallying process nearly complete, the focus now shifts to the ECC ordered audit of suspicious polling stations.

Yesterday, the Independent Election Commission (IEC) released preliminary results from 91.6 percent of polling stations with 54.1 percent of valid votes cast in favor of President Hamid Karzai for a total of 2,959,093 votes. The preliminary results show Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, President Karzai’s main competitor, receiving 28.3 percent of valid votes for a total of 1,546,490 votes. While the results appear to show President Karzai with a sizable lead which would allow him to avoid a second round runoff election, the reality is far more complicated.

Prior to the IEC’s release of preliminary results, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) issued an order to conduct an audit and recount of ballots cast at polling stations which meet one of two criteria. According the ECC order, if the total number of votes cast at a polling station is greater than or equal to 600 or one presidential candidate received 95 percent or more of the total valid votes cast than that polling station should be audited and recounted.

It’s important to understand that the audit itself is only one step in the ECC investigative procedure and that each polling station will be addressed on the basis of whether or not clear and convincing evidence of fraud exists. According to the IEC’s rules governing results audits, investigation teams may inspect results and reconciliation forms, ballot paper packing, polling station journals, and the actual count of ballots. If investigative teams uncover clear and convincing evidence of fraud at a given polling station, the ECC will be forced to decide on an appropriate corrective course of action.

It is likely that the IEC will complete the process of releasing preliminary results on Saturday, September 12. At that point, it will be possible to determine the total number of polling stations which meet the ECC’s audit criteria and in effect, the total number of votes at stake. Until then, however, only speculation is possible. Based on polling station level data released by the IEC on September 2, it is likely that at least 2,000 polling stations will be audited which could amount to more than 450,000 votes. It is conceivable that the results of the ECC ordered audit could reduce President Karzai’s margin of victory below the critical 50 percent threshold to avoid a second round runoff.

Also of concern is the diminishing number of polling stations being reported by the IEC. Since August 31, the IEC has held three press conferences to release preliminary results. Over that period, the total number of polling stations has decreased by 2,443. It is unclear what this number represents. While it may simply represent the IEC’s discovery of polling stations that did not in fact open on Election Day, it could also include polling stations where the IEC has annulled results or polling stations which the IEC is conducting investigations of, in which case the number of total polling stations may actually increase at the end of the investigative process. An explanation from the IEC which addresses this ambiguity would be welcome.

Complying with the ECC ordered recount could take weeks and significant complications could emerge throughout the process.  At this stage, the IEC has not released details regarding an audit and recount operation and until they do so it will not be possible to estimate how much longer Afghans will have to wait for certified election results. It is clear, however, that the IEC is unlikely to meet the initial projected date of September 17 for the release of official certified election results.