Democracy International issued the following press release today:

Kabul, Afghanistan – At 5PM today, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) released the long anticipated decision resulting from the audit of  polling stations that met the criteria of its September 8, 2009, audit and recount order.

Democracy International has analysed the results from data previously released and believes  the ECC audit decisions should result in a runoff election, according to Afghanistan’s Electoral Law. Our calculations suggest the percentage rejection of the ballots cast in each of the audit categories will reduce  President Hamid Karzai’s level of support to approximately 48.29% of the overall vote. This reduces his vote share below the 50% threshold necessary for a first-round victory, and should necessitate a runoff election between Hamid Karzai, and the second-place candidate, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah.  The IEC has a responsibility to certify the results based on the ECC’s decisions.

In addition, the ECC has decided to invalidate 210 polling stations based on Priority A complaints, 147 of which are included in the IEC’s published preliminary result.

Based on DI’s analysis of the preliminary results and understanding of the ECC’s audit process, we believe the combined impact of these decisions is:

Note: Some percentages may not add precisely to 100.00% because of rounding to two decimal places.

The ECC has now given a decision on the audit process, the results of which appear to require a run-off election to be held. The IEC should now review the operational requirements to hold that election and set a date for the earliest possible polling.

Earlier today, DI Principal Glenn Cowan testified before the U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia on the topic of the Afghan Elections. The following is a copy of his written statement:

Mr. Chairman and members of the subcommittee, thank you for inviting me to testify here today. The issues surrounding the Afghan elections are crucial both for the democratic development of that country and for U.S. foreign policy in the region, and I am pleased to be able to share my thoughts and observations on what has happened so far and where the process should go in the future.

The August 20 elections in Afghanistan have yet to produce a credible result. On election day my organization, Democracy International, fielded more than 60 international observers throughout the country, including in the cities of Kabul, Kandahar, Jalalabad and Hirat, and to Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Helmand, Ghazni, Paktika, Zabul, Farah, and Badghis provinces. Initial reports from them and from other observer groups were largely positive. Despite the fact that violence and intimidation kept some voters and observers away from the polls in many areas, in much of the country Afghans were able to cast their votes freely.  The voters and polling station officials we observed conducted themselves admirably in the face of threats from the Taliban, and the basic administrative procedures of the election largely worked.

Despite the apparent success of election day, however, we cautioned at the time that the overall legitimacy of the process was far from certain. Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC) still needed to tabulate and verify ballots. In addition, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), a dispute resolution body with three of five members appointed by the UN, still needed to investigate thousands of complaints. There were pre-election concerns about the ease of ballot manipulation in an election conducted without a voter registry and fears of biased or corrupt local and provincial election officials. The inability of domestic and international observers to access the most daunting and problematic areas of the country compounded these concerns.

The month since election day has done significant damage to the credibility of the elections and the IEC.  The ECC received more than 2,000 complaints on and after election day, including hundreds that it believed could have a material effect on the result of the election. The results reporting process managed by the IEC proceeded slowly and fitfully, with the IEC releasing partial results every few days. The commission claimed a need to release geographically diverse vote counts, but in the event this practice was not followed – northern areas were reported considerably before southern areas, leading to the appearance of a late surge by Karzai. The IEC did not report a complete preliminary result for the Presidential race until September 16, 27 days after the election. It did not release Provincial Council results until September 26, more than five weeks after election day, and results from four key provinces – Kandahar, Paktika, Ghazni, and Nangarhar – are still being withheld. The significant delay and manipulation in the release of results has created an environment of suspicion that has substantially damaged trust in the IEC and the overall election process.
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Democracy International issued the following press release today.

Kabul, Afghanistan – The planned recount and audit of results from Afghanistan’s August 20 Presidential Election must proceed in a transparent and timely manner if the election is to have any legitimacy in the eyes of the Afghan people or the international community, Democracy International said on Thursday. “Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission and Electoral Complaints Commission were established to protect the integrity of the electoral process,” said DI Principal Glenn Cowan. “Their work is now at its most crucial stage.”

Unless satisfactorily addressed, credible reports of ballot stuffing and other irregularities being raised by domestic and international observers, the media, the diplomatic community and others will undermine the electoral process. The preliminary results released yesterday by the Independent Election Commission (IEC) include a large number of potentially fraudulent votes that need to be investigated further before final results are certified. The recount and audit process mandated by the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) is essential to the credibility of the election and should receive the full support of the international community and Afghan political leaders.

“The decision by the ECC to require this audit presents an opportunity to legitimize the electoral process by purging fraudulent results from the tally”, said Cowan. “The results of this effort will determine the legitimacy of this election and it should be supported wholeheartedly by the international community.”

The Afghan government and all political actors should allow the IEC and ECC to conduct the audit without interference and produce a final certified result that reflects the legitimate votes actually cast by the Afghan people as accurately as possible.

Next Steps for the IEC and ECC

The IEC and the ECC should quickly establish and make public detailed procedures and a timeline for how the audit will be conducted, including clear standards by which to determine the validity of a polling station’s results. The process should be open to all interested parties, including candidate agents, the media, and domestic and international observers, and the results of the audit should be immediately and publicly disseminated.

The IEC should take this opportunity to release more detailed information on the preliminary results, including explanations for any polling station results it has invalidated or quarantined. There have been numerous instances of unexplained changes in provincial results after the IEC has released them, which has further contributed to the current perception of widespread fraud.

The IEC should also release results for the Provincial Council elections. These results should already be tallied and will provide a useful cross-check against which to compare the Presidential results. They are important in their own right and should not be left in limbo during the audit process.

Finally, those found to have committed fraud should be prosecuted as provided by law. A culture of electoral fraud should not be tolerated by the Afghan government or the Afghan people.

The ECC and the IEC were created to ensure the legitimacy of Afghanistan’s elections. These organizations must work together to address the issues before them to help restore the credibility of their country’s electoral process.

Democracy International issued the following press release earlier today. Press enquiries, please contact the media team.  

KABUL, Aug 22 2009 – For the August 20 2009 elections in Afghanistan to be credible, at a minimum the Independent Election Commission (IEC) must conduct a fair and transparent vote count and the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) adjudicate reported instances of fraud in a timely and effective manner, Democracy International said on Saturday.

Organizing an election in a time of war presents serious challenges. Democracy International (DI) observed that the security environment was better than anticipated and permitted the election to go forward. Democracy International’s election observation mission’s initial findings include:

• Violence and intimidation disenfranchised voters in a significant portion of the country. In more secure areas, however, Afghans generally were able to cast votes freely.
• Overall, administrative problems on election day did not affect by themselves the legitimacy of the vote.
• The lack of a voter list created the opportunity for significant fraud. The ECC should investigate any such claims.
• The lack of a voter list makes it hard to assess voter turnout. Our observations suggest it was very low in some areas of the country, especially the south.
• It would be premature to draw conclusions about the overall legitimacy of the process until the votes are tabulated and the results verified.

Security

While violence was not as widespread as feared, the threat of violence may have deterred millions of citizens from voting. As long as violence and intimidation disenfranchise large numbers of Afghan voters, elections here will continue to be flawed.

Administration

Concerns have been raised about administrative flaws on election day, including ineffective indelible ink and hole punches, and inconsistent training of polling station officials. Although these problems should be addressed for future elections, by themselves they did not affect the legitimacy of the vote.

Voter list

The inability to produce a voter registration list for use at the polling stations on election day was a major failure in the process. The absence of such a list, when combined with problems with identification cards, provided an opportunity for significant fraud. This makes it crucial for the IEC to be particularly diligent in its vote-count audit procedures.

Voter turnout

The absence of a comprehensive voter list makes it difficult to assess voter turnout. Because there is no accurate number of registered voters, it is not possible to accurately determine the percentage of eligible voters who cast ballots. Accordingly, the total number of people who voted is the only meaningful measure of turnout. Election day observations, however, indicate that turnout was low in at least some parts of the country.

Vote count

The IEC’s decision to withhold the vote count until five days after election day is unfortunate, particularly given the uncertain political environment. While we understand that the IEC wishes to avoid any confusion from releasing partial results, the transparency of the vote tabulation process should be the overriding concern. Releasing partial results and a clear explanation of the tentative nature of those results enhances confidence and improves the process by increasing transparency.This is especially important given the lack of any independent check on the vote counting process, such as might have been provided by a parallel vote tabulation.

Democracy International will issue its post-election statement after the release of results by the IEC.

We released this press release earlier:

Kabul, Afghanistan – Electoral assistance organization Democracy International today (Sunday) began to deploy its short-term observers across Afghanistan as part of a 60-person international mission to observe the country’s presidential and provincial elections, to be held on August 20. They join long-term observers already in place.

On Election Day, Democracy International’s short- and long-term observers will be deployed to 13 of the country’s 34 provinces. The provinces are Badghis, Farah, Ghazni, Hilmand, Hirat, Kabul, Kandahar, Nangarhar, Paktika, Panjsher, Parwan, Kapisa, and Zabul. U.S.-based Democracy International’s mission is one of several foreign delegations observing the elections.

Recent violence, including a car-bomb that killed seven and wounded 91 outside the NATO compound in Kabul on August 15, has heightened concerns about security on Election Day, and provides further evidence of the significant role that foreign observers can play in evaluating the election process.

“Despite this being an extraordinarily difficult election environment for observers we are confident that by deploying to these provinces we will be able to comment on the legitimacy of this election, even in the country’s most difficult provinces,” Democracy International (DI) principal Glenn Cowan said. “By taking the proper security posture, we expect to be able to successfully observe these elections.”

Democracy International’s observer delegation is led by former U.S. Congressman Jim Moody, an expert in South Asian politics and U.S. foreign assistance. Congressman Moody is joined by both of Democracy International’s principals, Eric Bjornlund and Glenn Cowan, recognized experts in election observation who have worked in more than 50 countries over the last 25 years.

Democracy International organized the U.S. election observation mission for elections in Pakistan in 2008. DI’s delegation comprises experts in Afghan politics and U.S.-Afghan relations, democracy assistance, election administration, South and Central Asian affairs, election observation, election forensics, women’s participation, and civil society. On July 23 it deployed 12 long-term observers in Hirat, Jalalabad, Kandahar, Kapisa, Panjsher, Parwan and the city of Kabul.

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