Democracy International issued the following press release today:

Kabul, Afghanistan – At 5PM today, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) released the long anticipated decision resulting from the audit of  polling stations that met the criteria of its September 8, 2009, audit and recount order.

Democracy International has analysed the results from data previously released and believes  the ECC audit decisions should result in a runoff election, according to Afghanistan’s Electoral Law. Our calculations suggest the percentage rejection of the ballots cast in each of the audit categories will reduce  President Hamid Karzai’s level of support to approximately 48.29% of the overall vote. This reduces his vote share below the 50% threshold necessary for a first-round victory, and should necessitate a runoff election between Hamid Karzai, and the second-place candidate, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah.  The IEC has a responsibility to certify the results based on the ECC’s decisions.

In addition, the ECC has decided to invalidate 210 polling stations based on Priority A complaints, 147 of which are included in the IEC’s published preliminary result.

Based on DI’s analysis of the preliminary results and understanding of the ECC’s audit process, we believe the combined impact of these decisions is:

Note: Some percentages may not add precisely to 100.00% because of rounding to two decimal places.

The ECC has now given a decision on the audit process, the results of which appear to require a run-off election to be held. The IEC should now review the operational requirements to hold that election and set a date for the earliest possible polling.

Earlier today, DI Principal Glenn Cowan testified before the U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia on the topic of the Afghan Elections. The following is a copy of his written statement:

Mr. Chairman and members of the subcommittee, thank you for inviting me to testify here today. The issues surrounding the Afghan elections are crucial both for the democratic development of that country and for U.S. foreign policy in the region, and I am pleased to be able to share my thoughts and observations on what has happened so far and where the process should go in the future.

The August 20 elections in Afghanistan have yet to produce a credible result. On election day my organization, Democracy International, fielded more than 60 international observers throughout the country, including in the cities of Kabul, Kandahar, Jalalabad and Hirat, and to Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Helmand, Ghazni, Paktika, Zabul, Farah, and Badghis provinces. Initial reports from them and from other observer groups were largely positive. Despite the fact that violence and intimidation kept some voters and observers away from the polls in many areas, in much of the country Afghans were able to cast their votes freely.  The voters and polling station officials we observed conducted themselves admirably in the face of threats from the Taliban, and the basic administrative procedures of the election largely worked.

Despite the apparent success of election day, however, we cautioned at the time that the overall legitimacy of the process was far from certain. Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC) still needed to tabulate and verify ballots. In addition, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), a dispute resolution body with three of five members appointed by the UN, still needed to investigate thousands of complaints. There were pre-election concerns about the ease of ballot manipulation in an election conducted without a voter registry and fears of biased or corrupt local and provincial election officials. The inability of domestic and international observers to access the most daunting and problematic areas of the country compounded these concerns.

The month since election day has done significant damage to the credibility of the elections and the IEC.  The ECC received more than 2,000 complaints on and after election day, including hundreds that it believed could have a material effect on the result of the election. The results reporting process managed by the IEC proceeded slowly and fitfully, with the IEC releasing partial results every few days. The commission claimed a need to release geographically diverse vote counts, but in the event this practice was not followed – northern areas were reported considerably before southern areas, leading to the appearance of a late surge by Karzai. The IEC did not report a complete preliminary result for the Presidential race until September 16, 27 days after the election. It did not release Provincial Council results until September 26, more than five weeks after election day, and results from four key provinces – Kandahar, Paktika, Ghazni, and Nangarhar – are still being withheld. The significant delay and manipulation in the release of results has created an environment of suspicion that has substantially damaged trust in the IEC and the overall election process.
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Democracy International issued the following press release today.

Kabul, Afghanistan – The planned recount and audit of results from Afghanistan’s August 20 Presidential Election must proceed in a transparent and timely manner if the election is to have any legitimacy in the eyes of the Afghan people or the international community, Democracy International said on Thursday. “Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission and Electoral Complaints Commission were established to protect the integrity of the electoral process,” said DI Principal Glenn Cowan. “Their work is now at its most crucial stage.”

Unless satisfactorily addressed, credible reports of ballot stuffing and other irregularities being raised by domestic and international observers, the media, the diplomatic community and others will undermine the electoral process. The preliminary results released yesterday by the Independent Election Commission (IEC) include a large number of potentially fraudulent votes that need to be investigated further before final results are certified. The recount and audit process mandated by the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) is essential to the credibility of the election and should receive the full support of the international community and Afghan political leaders.

“The decision by the ECC to require this audit presents an opportunity to legitimize the electoral process by purging fraudulent results from the tally”, said Cowan. “The results of this effort will determine the legitimacy of this election and it should be supported wholeheartedly by the international community.”

The Afghan government and all political actors should allow the IEC and ECC to conduct the audit without interference and produce a final certified result that reflects the legitimate votes actually cast by the Afghan people as accurately as possible.

Next Steps for the IEC and ECC

The IEC and the ECC should quickly establish and make public detailed procedures and a timeline for how the audit will be conducted, including clear standards by which to determine the validity of a polling station’s results. The process should be open to all interested parties, including candidate agents, the media, and domestic and international observers, and the results of the audit should be immediately and publicly disseminated.

The IEC should take this opportunity to release more detailed information on the preliminary results, including explanations for any polling station results it has invalidated or quarantined. There have been numerous instances of unexplained changes in provincial results after the IEC has released them, which has further contributed to the current perception of widespread fraud.

The IEC should also release results for the Provincial Council elections. These results should already be tallied and will provide a useful cross-check against which to compare the Presidential results. They are important in their own right and should not be left in limbo during the audit process.

Finally, those found to have committed fraud should be prosecuted as provided by law. A culture of electoral fraud should not be tolerated by the Afghan government or the Afghan people.

The ECC and the IEC were created to ensure the legitimacy of Afghanistan’s elections. These organizations must work together to address the issues before them to help restore the credibility of their country’s electoral process.

Democracy International issued the following press release earlier today. Press enquiries, please contact the media team.  

KABUL, Aug 22 2009 – For the August 20 2009 elections in Afghanistan to be credible, at a minimum the Independent Election Commission (IEC) must conduct a fair and transparent vote count and the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) adjudicate reported instances of fraud in a timely and effective manner, Democracy International said on Saturday.

Organizing an election in a time of war presents serious challenges. Democracy International (DI) observed that the security environment was better than anticipated and permitted the election to go forward. Democracy International’s election observation mission’s initial findings include:

• Violence and intimidation disenfranchised voters in a significant portion of the country. In more secure areas, however, Afghans generally were able to cast votes freely.
• Overall, administrative problems on election day did not affect by themselves the legitimacy of the vote.
• The lack of a voter list created the opportunity for significant fraud. The ECC should investigate any such claims.
• The lack of a voter list makes it hard to assess voter turnout. Our observations suggest it was very low in some areas of the country, especially the south.
• It would be premature to draw conclusions about the overall legitimacy of the process until the votes are tabulated and the results verified.

Security

While violence was not as widespread as feared, the threat of violence may have deterred millions of citizens from voting. As long as violence and intimidation disenfranchise large numbers of Afghan voters, elections here will continue to be flawed.

Administration

Concerns have been raised about administrative flaws on election day, including ineffective indelible ink and hole punches, and inconsistent training of polling station officials. Although these problems should be addressed for future elections, by themselves they did not affect the legitimacy of the vote.

Voter list

The inability to produce a voter registration list for use at the polling stations on election day was a major failure in the process. The absence of such a list, when combined with problems with identification cards, provided an opportunity for significant fraud. This makes it crucial for the IEC to be particularly diligent in its vote-count audit procedures.

Voter turnout

The absence of a comprehensive voter list makes it difficult to assess voter turnout. Because there is no accurate number of registered voters, it is not possible to accurately determine the percentage of eligible voters who cast ballots. Accordingly, the total number of people who voted is the only meaningful measure of turnout. Election day observations, however, indicate that turnout was low in at least some parts of the country.

Vote count

The IEC’s decision to withhold the vote count until five days after election day is unfortunate, particularly given the uncertain political environment. While we understand that the IEC wishes to avoid any confusion from releasing partial results, the transparency of the vote tabulation process should be the overriding concern. Releasing partial results and a clear explanation of the tentative nature of those results enhances confidence and improves the process by increasing transparency.This is especially important given the lack of any independent check on the vote counting process, such as might have been provided by a parallel vote tabulation.

Democracy International will issue its post-election statement after the release of results by the IEC.

Media mentions of Democracy International in the past 24 hours or so.

AFP’s new bureau chief in Kabul, Lynne O’Donnell: Afghan women seek change (a piece also picked up by the Gulf Times)

In Jalalabad, Tim Fairbank, an observer with the independent US monitoring organisation Democracy International, reported that 200 women voted at a women-only polling centre with the first 90 minutes of it opening.

and in another piece: Proud, defiant Afghans trickle to polling booths

"Some people are very scared, even civic activists are quite scared and nervous about attacks," said Tim Fairbank, in eastern city Jalalabad for US election observer Democracy International.

People in the city had received Taliban "night letters" warning them not to vote, he said, adding that a grenade had been thrown at a mosque that operated as a polling centre, with no injuries reported.

Matthew Fisher of CanWest News: Rivals claim victory in Afghan vote as results delayed:

The commission’s determination that they want to wait until the 25th is a mistake," said Glenn Cowan of Maryland-based Democracy International. "I think that all this will do is to tend to heighten the uncertainly and lead to a lot of conjecture about the process."

The Times’ Jeremy Page and Tom Coghlan in Kabul and Julius Cavendish in Kandahar quote Tim Fairbank: Taleban threats and attacks take toll on polls as voters stay away

Although Helmand appeared to be the worst affected province, turnout was also low in many other provinces with large Pashtun populations. “This is Karzai country but they really failed to get the vote out today,” said Tom Fairbank, an observer for Democracy International in the eastern city of Jalalabad, which voted overwhelmingly for Mr Karzai in 2004.

“The interesting thing now is to see how many people they will say voted here when they release the results.”

Jon Boone of The Guardian: Western diplomats laud Afghan election:

The Independent Election Commission said today it would not publish any official data until Tuesday. Glenn Cowan, an observer from Democracy International, said the decision was "probably a mistake". "Almost all elections add somewhat to political tension and this one is not different," he said. "The best way to relive that tension is to provide information to people about an already uncertain election."

Bloomberg’s James Rupert quotes Marvin Weinbaum: Afghan Election Chief Asks Karzai, Abdullah to Halt Win Claims

Any hope of eventually defeating Islamic militancy in Afghanistan will require an Afghan government that better meets its people’s aspirations, said Marvin Weinbaum, a specialist on the region at the Middle East Institute in Washington. Weinbaum, who monitored the voting for the Washington-based elections organization Democracy International Inc., said fraud charges and candidates’ disputes undermine the election as a tool to strengthen the government.

and Hardin Lang in Afghan Vote Turnout Likely Hampered by Taliban Threat:

“The streets were eerily quiet” in the southern city of Kandahar, where drummers and dancers performed outside polling places in 2004, said Hardin Lang, a monitor with Democracy International Inc., a Washington-based elections organization.

“The turnout appeared rather low in comparison to the last time,” said Lang. “There was no anecdotal evidence of enthusiasm.”

NPR’s Robert Siegel also interviews Hardin: Sound Of Gunfire Adds To Afghan Voters’ Fears

Elections workers are counting votes cast in Thursday’s Afghan presidential election. Early reports suggest voting in the south’s largest city, Kandahar, was light. Hardin Lang, an election observer in Kandahar, says that starting at about 3 a.m., gunfire, rocket fire and mortar fire could be heard, adding to an overall sense of tension in the area.

ABC Australia interviews Brian Katulis: Threats, vote-rigging cast doubt on Afghan poll

Brian Katulis from the US-based group Democracy International which has been observing the polls says the precarious security situation deterred many voters in the south and east.

Sun Sentinel liked our video on election tampering.

Bill Gallery, our senior program manager, was quoted in a French AFP story picked up by Le Point:

Selon Bill Gallery, membre de l’organisation américaine d’observateurs Democracy International, l’insécurité va empêcher les observateurs étrangers de se rendre dans les régions les plus instables.
[..]
La Commission électorale afghane a indiqué que plus de 10 % des quelque 7.000 bureaux de vote prévus pourraient ne pas ouvrir faute de sécurité. "Et ce sont ces zones où il y aura le plus de chances d’irrégularités", note M. Gallery.

An uncredited piece in Paris Normandie quoted Glenn Cowan: Doutes sur le scrutin

En outre, l’électeur d’un village reculé risque d’être soumis soit aux intimidations de « petits chefs » locaux pour voter dans tel ou tel sens, soit à celles des talibans pour s’abstenir. « Pour ces raisons de sécurité, ce ne sera pas un choix libre et entièrement ouvert », a souligné Glenn Cowan de Democracy International. Si le résultat de ces élections est massivement contesté le risque de troubles civils sera réel.

Bill Gallery also appeared in Welt Online: In Afghanistan trotzen Millionen Wähler der Gewalt

Auch aus dem Süden kamen Meldungen über eine rege Stimmabgabe. Viele Beobachter seien über die starke Beteiligung überrascht gewesen, sagte Bill Gallery von der Organisation Democracy International. "Das übertraf ihre Erwartungen."